Rising supply pressures
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production for the 2024-25 season is projected to reach 533.8 million tons, up 11.6 million tons from the previous season. Total supply is expected to increase by 10.6 million tons to 713.1 million tons, while global rice trade is forecast to hit a record 57.2 million tons due to rising exports from multiple countries.
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Farmers harvest the winter-spring rice crop in Bac Lieu province. |
Vietnam's rice export prices have dropped sharply since early 2025, with 5% broken rice now at 404 USD per ton, lower than that from Thailand, India, and Pakistan. The price decline is driven by increased supply and major importers prioritizing domestic production while limiting high-priced rice imports.
The Thailand Rice Exporters Association (TREA) forecasts a significant decline in Thai rice exports to 7.5 million tons in 2025 due to heightened competition from India and reduced demand from Indonesia. Meanwhile, India is ramping up rice exports and expanding cultivation, with Rabi-season rice planting reaching 3.515 million hectares by late January, a 15.7% increase from the previous year.
Flexible production and export strategies
The Department of Crop Production under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reports that as of January, Vietnam's autumn-winter harvest in the Mekong Delta covered 711,000 ha, yielding an estimated 4.16 million tons of rice. The 2024-25 winter-spring crop has also begun harvesting, adding 1.02 million tons to supply. This influx has led to lower domestic prices, necessitating strong export activity to stabilize farmers’ incomes.
By mid-January, Vietnam had exported 268,700 tons of rice, generating nearly 165.7 million USD, up 38.7% in volume and 23.28% in value year-on-year. To sustain exports, authorities are prioritizing trade promotion, with the Ministry of Industry and Trade implementing measures to boost rice exports.
However, rice exporters also require financial support from banks to strengthen their capital for purchasing paddy for export. Notably, as of January 1, the Government issued Decree 01, amending and supplementing certain provisions of Decree 107 in 2018 on rice trading and export.
The decree introduces clearer regulations on rice exports to ensure domestic food security while enhancing rice value and quality, building brand recognition, and promoting trade.
While traditional markets like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia remain key, 2025 efforts will target high-demand regions such as the Middle East and Northern Europe, alongside strategies to regain market share in China.
Businesses and industry associations are urged to collaborate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to integrate Vietnamese rice into retail chains and supermarkets in importing countries, enhancing brand visibility and market presence.
Source: VNA