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In the first scenario, food prices
are expected to remain relatively stable. Photo: NDO
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In the first scenario, food prices
are expected to remain relatively stable and only rise slightly during the
holidays.
Hikes in health care costs in the
first quarter are projected to increase the CPI by 0.17 percent, while wage
increases and higher power costs will drive up the CPI by 0.14 percent and 0.1
percent respectively.
A 5 percent increase each in petrol
and gas prices will lift the CPI by 0.28 percent and 0.06 percent respectively.
After factoring in these price
rises, the average CPI in 2018 is expected to rise by 3 percent.
In the second scenario, which is
largely the same as the first one, with the exception that pork prices rise by
7 percent at the end of the year and petrol and gas prices increase by 10
percent, the average CPI in 2018 will rise by 3.4 percent.
Meanwhile the average CPI will
increase by 3.9 percent in the third scenario, assuming a 15 percent rise in
pork prices and 15 percent hikes in petrol and gas prices with other price
increases the same as in the first scenario.
According to the General Statistics
Office (GSO), Vietnam’s
average inflation in 2017 fell from 5.22 percent in January to 3.61 percent in
November.
The year 2017 is considered a
successful year in inflation control, as the average CPI increased 3.53 percent
over 2016 and 2.6 per cent compared to December 2016, fulfilling the target of
keeping the rate under 4 percent for the whole year, GSO Nguyen Bich Lam said
during a meeting last week.
Lam pointed out major reasons behind
the CPI rise, including hikes in the prices of health care and education
services, as well as an increase in regional minimum wage.
At the same time, domestic fuel
prices in 2017 rose 15.49 percent compared to 2016, contributing 0.64 percent
in CPI increase for the whole year.
The price of construction materials
was up 5.23 percent due to increases in the prices of sand and steel. Rising
prices of essential goods in the global market also pushed the import price
index up by 2.57 percent and export price index up by 2.93 percent; the
Producer Price Index (PPI) expanded by 2.82 percent.
Lam underscored that a record number
of 16 storms were seen in 2017, which pushed up the prices of food and
foodstuff in affected localities, especially central provinces.
Meanwhile, there were a number of
factors helping rein in inflation, including a downturn of 2.6 percent in food
prices in 2017, helping reduce the overall CPI by about 0.53 percent.
GSO Director Nguyen Bich Lam
attributed the success in meeting the inflation target for the year to efforts
of ministries in encouraging businesses’ involvement in stocking goods and stabilizing
the market.
The Ministry of Finance had kept a
close watch on market developments, while coordinating with the Ministry of
Industry and Trade to manage fuel prices, he said.
Source: VNA