This stability is expected to create room for selective and sustainable economic growth in 2026.
Ensuring smooth monetary circulation
Throughout 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has reaffirmed its role as the central regulatory authority in managing monetary policy, stabilizing the financial market, and maintaining macroeconomic balance. Closely monitoring international and domestic economic trends, the SBV steered the monetary policy pro-actively while closely coordinating with the fiscal policy to achieve the dual objective of controlling inflation and supporting growth.
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The interest rate policy has been adjusted in line with market movements to ensure system liquidity and reduce capital costs. |
SBV Governor Nguyen Thi Hong affirmed that the central bank and the banking system have implemented concerted key measures and achieved significant results, contributing substantially to macroeconomic stability and maintaining major economic balances.
Key economic indicators reflected policy effectiveness: GDP grew 8.23% in Q3 and 7.85% over the first nine months; inflation was kept at 3.29%; interest rates and exchange rates remained relatively stable. In a context where many regional economies have faced strong exchange rate pressures, maintaining relative stability of the VND/USD exchange rate has helped reinforce market confidence, support exports, attract investment, and stabilize business sentiment. As of December 5, the exchange rate had increased about 3.5% from the end of 2024, while the forex market remained stable.
The interest rate policy has been adjusted in line with market movements to ensure system liquidity and reduce capital costs, while credit access measures were deployed to support businesses and households. These solutions proved particularly vital in addressing shocks from natural disasters, with nearly 250,000 customers affected by storms and floods receiving timely credit support, interest reductions, and preferential recovery loans.
Institutional reform has also advanced, including amendments to the Law on Credit Institutions, the Law on Deposit Insurance, new rules on gold market management, and the adoption of Basel III standards, helping strengthen governance, resilience, and regulatory alignment with international practice.
Many banks exceed growth targets
Supported by macro stability, commercial banks have recorded positive business results in 2025. Credit growth remains reasonable, prioritizing production, exports, essential consumption, and increasingly expanding into green finance, digital transformation, and innovation sectors. As of November 27, sector-wide credit had reached over 18.2 quadrillion VND (690.9 billion USD), up 16.56% year-to-date, significantly higher than the increase of 11.8% in the same period of 2024.
Many banks announced they had met or exceeded profit targets, with state-owned banks maintaining their system-leading role while joint stock banks posted stronger breakthroughs driven not only by credit expansion but also improved cost management, revenue diversification, and enhanced risk governance.
However, challenges remain. Hong emphasized that the banking sector must simultaneously maintain inflation control, stabilize exchange rates and financial markets, support economic growth, and ensure system safety. It requires cautious credit expansion amidst risks from real estate and corporate bonds.
Macroeconomic stability remains a prerequisite for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the banking sector faces higher expectations in mobilizing capital for sustainable growth. The SBV will remain steadfast in ensuring macro stability and systemic safety while flexibly coordinating monetary and exchange rate tools.
Analysts forecast continued positive but cautious prospects for the sector in 2026, with double-digit profit growth, supported by stable credit expansion and improved asset quality. However, risk management remains a core requirement.
According to SSI Research, the SBV may gradually remove the overall system credit growth cap, but indirect regulatory tools will likely continue guiding capital flows toward priority sectors while controlling high-risk areas.
The SBV Governor reaffirmed the central policy direction: maintaining macro stability and banking system safety while supporting rapid and sustainable economic growth, thus positioning the banking sector as a key pillar in Vietnam’s next growth cycle.
Source: VNA