Export value increased by 52 billion USD compared with the same period in 2024, a notable gain given global trade remains affected by tariff measures and trade barriers in major markets.
Companies ramped up production ahead of U.S. tariff hikes, while mining and energy output also increased, contributing positively to export performance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said in its latest Industrial Production and Trade Report.
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Rice for export at Hanh Phuc rice factory in An Giang province |
However, exports in the first half of October showed signs of cooling, totalling 9.34 billion USD, down 17.4% from the previous 15 days. The slowdown reflects forecasts that higher U.S. tariffs would dampen import demand.
Despite this, exports remain on track for double-digit growth, though rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions and global economic headwinds continue to challenge Vietnam’s trade outlook in the final quarter and the country’s 2025 export targets.
HSBC recently revised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth upward from 6.6% to 7.9%, citing resilient trade as a major driver. Electronics manufacturing and exports, particularly to the U.S., remain the core growth engines. In the third quarter, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. jumped nearly 30% from a year earlier, while shipments from other ASEAN economies slipped as early order frontloading eased.
Vietnam’s trade surplus also doubled in Q3 compared with the first half of the year, supported by growing surpluses with markets outside the U.S.
Rising risks
Even as export turnover in the first ten months exceeded expectations, officials warn that challenges persist.
According to Vu Minh Tam from the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade, protectionism, geopolitical frictions and sluggish global growth are fuelling uncertainty, disrupting supply chains and pushing up logistics costs.
Vietnam has faced nearly 20 new trade remedy investigations as of September. Legal expenses, particularly in the U.S., can reach 13 billion VND (nearly 494,000 USD) per case, posing a heavy burden for exporters.
“Green barriers” linked to environmental protection, sustainable development labor standards are also becoming more prevalent. While designed to promote sustainability, such non-tariff measures risk restricting imports and altering global trade flows.
The global trading system is increasingly shaped by unilateral policies, particularly from large economies. The U.S.’s reciprocal tariffs have prompted many countries to adjust their trade commitments, directly affecting Vietnam’s export operations.
Domestically, a National Assembly verification report on the 2025 socio-economic development plan noted that key growth drivers, exports, consumption and investment, have yet to regain sufficient momentum. Vietnam’s export structure remains fragile, heavily reliant on FDI and imported inputs, while technical barriers and sustainability requirements in key markets are mounting.
Still, experts say the current trade environment also presents opportunities. Tariff challenges could encourage Vietnamese firms to diversify markets and capitalize on the country’s 17 free trade agreements covering more than 60 economies. Expanding into new destinations and reducing dependence on a few key sectors could help build a more resilient and sustainable export base.
Source: VNA