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The weather in Vietnam is becoming more and more complicated due to climate change. To minimise losses caused by natural disasters, weather forecasts, particularly for storms and floods should be accurate and timely.

Deputy Director of the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Pham Van Duc puts forwards three reasons for accurate weather forecasts.

Firstly, this year’s storm season has come later than every year with a fewer number of storms and tropical low pressure operating in the East Sea. Since the beginning of this year, eight storms have hit the East Sea in which, one tropical depression and three storms directly affected Vietnam, particularly the northern region.

Secondly, there are only weak floods, at alarm level one on the rivers in the northern, southern and central highlands. Only floods on the Luc Nam and Hoang Ha rivers are put at the alarm levels two and three. Meanwhile water reservoirs in the northern and central highlands regions always face a dire shortage of water.

Thirdly, since October this year, flash floods have constantly stricken the central region, causing heavy flooding. All are abnormal weather phenomena this year.

It was not the first time dual floods have hit Vietnam as this happened in the central region in 2007 on the Giang River in Quang Binh province. However, the occurrence of dual floods on the same river within four years is also a special phenomenon, said Mr Duc.

To have accurate weather forecasts, it is essential to revamp the three relevant forecasting systems, including the observation system to collect hydro-meteorological information, the information system to transmit information from basic investigation stations to forecasting agencies, and the data processing system to make forecasts.

If the three systems operate well along with qualified forecasters, the best weather forecasts will be possible.

The Government approved a project to modernise forecasting technology and the hydrometeorology observation network in the 2010-2012 period which is a premise for implementing the sector’s development strategy by 2020.

However, in order to obtain the target that Vietnam’s weather forecast quality will be a leader in Southeast Asia by 2015 and will catch up with developed countries in Asia, Vietnam will carry out many other projects.

Le Thanh Hai, Vice Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting says that the hydro-meteorological forecasting news is allowed an error of 20 percent in three days, 30 percent in a week and 40 percent in a month. These errors are equal to those in other countries in the region.

Currently, the centre has 134 officials, 89 percent of them university graduates, 9 Ph.D degree holders and 17 MA degree holders. They are young and enthusiastic but inexperienced so hydro-meteorological forecasting is limited.

The observation system reveals three main problems. First, station density is scattered, mainly in coastal and urban areas. Second, collected data is not sent to hydro-meteorological forecasting stations immediately, causing delay in forecasting. Thirdly, measurement technologies and equipment is too old to detect changeable weather.

Truong Quang Hoc, Head of the Climate Change Department under Vietnam’s Nature and Environment Protection Association, says that prolonged El Nino and La Nina caused changeable weather. According to the United Nations’ report, natural disasters are increasing at an alarming rate. The number of natural disasters tripled and the number of victims has doubled over the past three decades.

 The Vietnamese Government announced a programme to cope with climate change in 2008 and then a national plan to implement natural disaster prevention strategy. Vietnam also has a script on climate change built by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, which is a foundation for all ministries, departments and provinces to evaluate the impact of climate change and devise proper measures to deal with it.

Hoc adds that to minimize natural disasters’ damages, frequent disaster-prone areas should devise preventive measures and have regular drills to timely cope with natural disasters. We should also learn the experiences of coping with disasters from residents, especially those near the sea,

The forest plays an important role in regulating nature and is a shield to minimise disasters. Forestland helps to preserve water sources. Forest plantation is an effective and economical way for provinces to improve their prevention work.

Source: VOV