Beyond preserving headline inflows, the country is gradually lifting investment quality and stitching itself more tightly into global value chains.
Holding momentum against headwinds
The 2021–2025 period was defined by severe global economic disruptions, from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, to supply chain restructuring. Despite these, Vietnam absorbed the blows better than most, emerging as one of Southeast Asia’s standout FDI destinations.
Registered FDI over the five-year span ranged from 27-38 billion USD annually, hitting roughly 38.4 billion USD in 2025. More tellingly, realized capital approached 27.6 billion USD, up 9%, the highest level in five years.
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A garment factory in Bac Ninh province |
The sustained growth in disbursement showed that existing projects are steady and capital is being deployed on schedule, a direct gauge of investor confidence. At a moment when global capital remains on a tight leash, rising disbursed flows send a positive signal, anchoring the FDI sector’s role in production, exports, and overall growth.
Dr. Dang Thao Quyen from RMIT University Vietnam said the results prove FDI is moving beyond paper commitments into effective action, confirming investor confidence in the market’s operational efficiency and long-term potential.
Echoing this view, Dr. Nguyen Ba Hung, ADB Chief Economist in Vietnam, added that while registered capital captures initial interest, only disbursed capital translates into economic output. Persistently high disbursement against a volatile global backdrop underscores durable investor faith in Vietnam.
Another bright spot is the sharp rise in newly registered capital and newly licensed projects, indicating that Vietnam remains a favored node in global supply chain diversification strategies.
A shift toward “deep investment” is also taking shape through rising adjusted capital and surging capital contributions and share acquisitions. In 2025 alone, the value of capital contributions and share purchases soared 54.8%, signaling that foreign players are scaling up and digging deeper into the domestic market, a powerful “vote of confidence” in the investment climate and policy framework.
Entering 2026, global conditions remain complex, leading to more cautious FDI flows. Yet, the first-quarter registered FDI neared 15.2 billion USD, a sharp year-on-year rise, while disbursed capital rose to about 4.6 billion USD, up 7–8%.
The FDI sector continues to dominate exports, consistently accounting for 70–75% of Vietnam’s total outbound shipments and generating a sizeable trade surplus that supports overall trade balance stability.
FDI pivots to hi-tech, deeper value chains
A signature feature of Vietnam’s FDI story is the clear upgrade in quality. Processing and manufacturing remains the anchor, absorbing 55–60% of total registered capital during 2021–2025 and vaulting to over 70% in early 2026. In 2025, it took more than 80% of total disbursed capital, underscoring Vietnam’s role as a production linchpin in global supply chains.
The pivot, however, goes beyond share gains; it’s structural. FDI is shifting from labor-intensive assembly toward higher value-added segments such as electronic components, semiconductors, precision equipment, data centers, and digital technologies, with billion-U.S. dollar projects now entering the pipeline.
Recent major projects, particularly in the first quarter, including a 1.2 billion USD FCBGA circuit board manufacturing project in Thai Nguyen by Samsung Electro-Mechanics and a 2.2 billion USD liquefied natural gas (LNG) power project in Nghe An, illustrate Vietnam’s deepening integration into high-value rungs of global supply chains. They also a deliberate tilt toward selective, quality-driven FDI that prioritizes advanced technology and domestic spillover potential.
Looking to 2026, the World Bank and ADB forecast sustained pressure on global FDI flows from high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and economic fragmentation. Still, Vietnam holds considerable advantages to keep its edge.
According to experts, future FDI prospects hinge largely on Vietnam’s capacity for reform and adaptation. Macro stability, infrastructure quality, workforce skill upgrades, and institutional overhauls will determine whether the country can seize shifting capital flows for further breakthroughs.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet from the University of Economics and Business under the Vietnam National University - Hanoi, suggested moving from “tax incentives” to “institutional and infrastructure readiness” as the foundation to draw next-generation FDI.
He also highlighted three key pillars, including strategic infrastructure spanning digital infrastructure, data systems, green energy, and urban services beyond industrial zones; a quality workforce; and a reliable institutional framework marked by transparency, stability, and predictability up to international standards.
Improving the investment climate, building out strategic infrastructure, upskilling labor, and deepening business linkages will decide whether Vietnam not only holds its position but becomes a strategic hub in global supply chains, he added.
Source: VNA